Water GenbuTier 1
at JWW DTR Store Champs
decks
3
(18.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
8-4-2
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
59.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1525
· median 1538
· range 1347–1689
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1079
Q1 1184
Q3 1419
1689
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 18.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 57.8% | +5.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.2% | +2.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.7% | +3.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.8% | -7.8 |
